2025 Holiday Travel Forecast

The holiday travel season is always busy, with the potential for long lines, lost luggage, delays, and cancellations, but this year could be even more challenging. On November 5, the FAA announced that, due to the government shutdown and resulting decrease in available air traffic controllers, airlines at airports across the country needed to cut flights by 10%.

It remains to be seen how long this will be in effect, so right now the question of “What should we expect from holiday travel in 2025?” is a pretty impossible one to answer. If the shutdown stretches into the end of November and even into December, we’re looking at a really rough time. But, with some strategic planning, travelers can be a little more prepared, and should things return to business as usual, they could even take advantage of some great travel deals.

How people are thinking about 2025 holiday travel

We surveyed more than 1,000 members of point.me to find out how their holiday travel plans are shaping up. What we learned:

• 73% of people will travel for at least one holiday, with the most people traveling for Christmas and the fewest traveling for New Year’s

• Despite an uncertain economy, few people (only 10-16% depending on the holiday) say cost is a reason why they are staying home

• More than half (51%) of Thanksgiving travelers are going to see family, while 81% of New Year’s travelers are taking a vacation

• Thanksgiving travelers are most likely to be traveling within the U.S., while New Year’s travelers are most likely to be taking an international trip

• Across holidays, the majority of people are revisiting familiar destinations this year. With 73% of Thanksgiving travelers, 66% of Christmas travelers, and 73% of New Year’s travelers returning to a previous destination

• The vast majority (73-83%) will fly to their destination

Most people will travel for at least one holiday

In 2025, 73% of people expect to travel for at least one holiday between Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s, with the majority of those travelers planning their trips for Christmas and the smallest group planning their trips for New Year’s. Compared to last year, fewer people are planning to travel — in 2024, 80% expected to travel for at least one holiday — but perhaps surprisingly, cost and the economy aren’t to blame.

Cost is not a major factor keeping people home

When it comes to why people aren’t traveling, the two main reasons are that people simply prefer to stay home or that they have family or work commitments. People were more likely to cite a preference for staying home over New Year’s and more likely to cite family and work commitments for Christmas. Only 10-16% cited cost concerns as their reason to stay home.

Leisure trips are a driver of travel for Christmas and New Year’s — but people are returning to familiar places vs visiting new ones

While a slight majority of Thanksgiving travelers are visiting family, perhaps surprisingly, the majority of people traveling over Christmas and New Year’s are actually traveling for tourism. The majority are also returning to places they have already been.

Just as Thanksgiving travelers are the most likely to visit family, they are also the most likely to visit a domestic location and, along with Christmas travelers, the most likely to be returning to a place they have already been. And just as New Year’s travelers were the least likely to be visiting family, they were the most likely to be traveling internationally and the most likely to be visiting a new place.

Flying is the dominant method of transportation

Across the holidays, more than two-thirds of people will travel by plane, with those international New Year’s travelers slightly more likely to fly and the domestic-traveling, family-visiting Thanksgiving travelers a bit more likely to drive. Of those who will fly, close to half plan to redeem points for their flights — which is great news for this year, as award bookings tend to be more flexible, especially when compared to basic economy cash fares.

Thanksgiving travel

Best and worst days to fly for Thanksgiving 2025

In 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, the Sunday after Thanksgiving was the single busiest day of the year to fly from U.S. airports, and in 2024, the day actually set a new record for the TSA for the highest number of people ever screened in a single day: more than 3 million. Given the increase in travelers and the current issues caused by the government shutdown, it’s wise to avoid traveling this day if you can.

Comparatively, Thanksgiving itself is actually a pretty great day to fly, as most people already want to be where they’re going and have flown to their destination earlier. In 2023, for example, while 2.9 million people passed through TSA on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, only 1.5 million people did so on Thanksgiving Day.

With the uncertainty of reduced flight schedules, it’s best to 1) add as much padding in your schedule as you can and 2) plan your flight for early in the morning or later at night, when there are fewer planes flying and the schedules are less likely to be affected.

Top destinations for Thanksgiving

With so many people traveling domestically for Thanksgiving, it’s actually a perfect time to snag great deals to international destinations, as these flights are less full and prices are lower. As a bonus, it’s off-season in many places, including Europe, so prices tend to be lower. International flights are the least likely to be affected by the schedule reductions.

Top domestic Thanksgiving destinations

• NYC

• Los Angeles

• San Francisco

• Washington, DC

• Miami

• Chicago

Top international Thanksgiving destinations

• London

• Tokyo

• Paris

• Bangkok

• Delhi

• Amsterdam

Christmas travel

Best and worst days to fly for Christmas 2025

In general, the busiest days at U.S. airports are Fridays, and the Friday before Christmas, along with the following few days, will likely be the busiest for Christmas travel as well. Similar to Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are comparatively quiet days for air travel.

Top destinations for Christmas

Christmas is one of the most expensive times to travel, both domestically and internationally. While flight prices tend to rise across all destinations, hotel prices can also soar in popular spots like Hawaii, the Caribbean, and Australia. If you’re looking to vacation on a budget, consider places that don’t celebrate a major holiday in December or where Christianity isn’t the dominant religion; in spots like Morocco, Vietnam, Turkey, Japan, and many others, costs don’t rise as dramatically over the Christmas period.

When cash fares are high, it’s actually a great time to use your points, as each point becomes worth a lot more. So if you’re finding cash fares are a lot more than you want to pay, check out the points fares. Points fares, unlike cash fares, don’t always soar as the departure date approaches, so you might find some great deals even at the last minute. Top domestic Christmas destinations

• New York

• Los Angeles

• San Francisco

• Miami

• Honolulu

Top international Christmas destinations

• London

• Tokyo

• Paris

• Bangkok

• Dubai

• Cancun

New Year's travel

Best and worst days to fly for New Year’s 2025

With New Year’s following hot on the heels of Christmas, many of the best and worst days to fly overlap. If you’re skipping travel for Christmas and flying out afterward, you’ll likely see fewer crowds on the Friday after Christmas, with passenger numbers increasing as New Year’s Eve approaches.

Like Christmas and Thanksgiving, New Year’s Eve can actually be a great day to fly, especially on an overnight flight. From the Friday after New Year’s until that Sunday, prices will be at a premium, and passenger numbers will be higher as people try to fly home before work starts back up post-holiday.

Top destinations for New Year’s

There’s no getting around it; most places will be expensive to travel to over the New Year holiday, both in terms of flying there and when it comes to hotels. Places renowned for their New Year celebrations (think: Berlin, Rio, New York, Sydney, Reykjavik, and others) will likely cost the most as thousands, or even millions, of people head to those cities to ring in the New Year. Warm weather destinations accessible from the U.S. (think: Hawaii, the Caribbean) can also be quite expensive as it’s peak season there.

For flights, fares will also be at a premium, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some great deals to be found.

Top domestic New Year’s destinations

• New York

• Los Angeles

• San Francisco

• Miami

• Washington, DC

• Seattle

Top international New Year’s destinations

• London

• Paris

• Tokyo

• Bangkok

• Madrid

• Sydney

Tips for holiday travel in 2025

Planning a trip over Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s this year? Here are some things to consider. Use points for more flexibility

Between FAA schedule reductions and longer TSA lines due to the government shutdown, there’s a lot…up in the air… with travel this season. Using points can help. First, many loyalty programs allow you to cancel or change an award flight for free, so if you aren’t entirely sure you want to travel, this gives you more flexibility without losing money. And, if you’re worried about your flight being cancelled, you can use points to book a backup flight without tying up extra cash or spending extra for a fully refundable fare.

The actual holiday is the quietest, and often cheapest, day to travel

Most people don’t want to travel on Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, or New Year’s Eve. If you’re willing, you’ll spend less and deal with shorter lines and fewer crowds at the airport. Getting anywhere warm will be difficult or expensive

Late November into early January kicks off the high season in many warm-weather destinations like the Caribbean, Hawaii, and Mexico, and award space will be extremely limited. If you’re set on visiting one of these places, it helps to be flexible on your travel dates or airports.

Build in a buffer

Let’s say you do book a flight back on January 3, and it gets canceled. With flights sold out for the 4th and 5th, you might not get home until a few days later. Plan for the worst and make sure you can adjust should you get delayed coming home.

Book your flights for earlier in the day

Delays stack up; once one flight is delayed, the next one using that plane will be delayed, and so on and so on. To reduce your chances of getting delayed or missing a connection, book your flights as early in the day as you can.

Early January will be very busy

Friday, January 2, to Sunday, January 4, will be one of the hardest times to snag award space as millions of people try to return home after the New Year in time for work to start on Monday. You’ll have an easier time finding seats and spend less if you fly back either before or several days after (like January 10 or later) the holiday.

Allow extra time

Airports will be busier than normal during the holidays, and the shutdown could make it significantly worse, so even if you have TSA PreCheck or CLEAR, allow some extra time to check your bag, get through TSA, and navigate through the masses of people crowding the airport. If you’ve got a layover, it’s wise to err on the longer side as well, not only in case of delays but also to allow yourself — and your checked bag — more time to get through the airport and onto your next flight.

Pack light and pack smart

More people traveling = more bags to transport = more chances for your bag to be lost or delayed. Sometimes, you can’t help but check a bag, but if you must, make sure that anything vital to your trip (that dress you have to wear on Christmas Eve) or valuable (the engagement ring for your New Year’s Eve proposal) stays with you in the cabin. While you can bring wrapped gifts, the TSA recommends you travel with gifts unwrapped, as they may need to unwrap them to examine them. And yes, you can bring pie on a plane.

Book directly with the airline or loyalty program

Whether you use cash or points, booking directly with the airline can help you in case things go wrong. When you book with a third party like an OTA or your credit card portal, you can end up in an endless blame loop, with the third party telling you to contact the airline and the airline telling you to contact the third party. Booking directly with the airline generally gets you better, faster customer service — which can mean the difference between getting home on the next flight or spending the night in your layover airport.

If you’re booking with cash, use a credit card that offers travel protections such as coverage for cancellations, delays, and lost luggage.