Report: Loyalty in Times of Economic Uncertainty and How Points Can Be a Powerful Financial Resource

Economic outlooks have always impacted travel. In 2009, one year after the start of The Great Recession, global travel demand decreased 3.5%, and several airlines faced severe financial issues or declared bankruptcy. 

Now, the United States is teetering on the edge of another possible recession, international travel to the US is declining, financial uncertainty is increasing, and there’s a lot of concern over how the economic outlook could impact travel. For points and miles enthusiasts, that concern extends to how they use (or save) their points and miles, and how leveraging those points can make travel more attainable.

To help consumers make sense of it all, we surveyed nearly 4,000 Americans (both point.me members and not) to find out how they’re thinking about travel and the economy, and we looked at historical trends in how the economic outlook has impacted loyalty programs. Finally, we’ve got tips on what to do with your points right now and how you can leverage loyalty to continue traveling when the financial future is a little uncertain. 

How people are thinking about travel, points, and miles in the current economy 

In a May survey of 2,000 Americans, 69% said that current economic conditions are impacting their 2025 travel plans, with more than half (54%) saying that concern over the economy is leading them to take fewer trips or wait longer to book so they can see how things unfold. 

While general consumers are feeling the pinch, points and miles can provide a bit of financial security. When the same question was asked of point.me members, a group that typically takes at least two international trips and two domestic trips each year, there was a bit more confidence. About half (51%) of this group said that the economy was not impacting their 2025 plans. Of those who were reconsidering their plans, a greater portion was waiting longer to book rather than reducing their plans altogether. 

The disparity in confidence could be attributed to the hidden wealth that points represent to those who have them. Among point.me members, 65% have more than 200,000 points — enough for two round-trip business class flights from the US to Europe, or at least four round-trip economy flights. With this “found money” in their accounts, many points users have more confidence in their ability to afford their travels, even if other expenses rise. 

Of point.me members who said they are taking more trips as a result of the economy, 53% said it’s because they are leveraging points, while an additional 35% said they are taking advantage of lower fares from decreased demand.

How loyalty programs can benefit businesses and consumers in an economic downturn 

Many points and miles enthusiasts see their points and miles as a way to escape some of the more painful effects of a weak economy, and they leverage this extra wealth to continue traveling even when finances might otherwise be a concern. The businesses that offer these programs benefit from them too. 

In fact, loyalty programs are often the most valuable assets on a travel company’s balance sheet. During the pandemic, several airlines even used their loyalty programs as collateral for multi-billion-dollar loans. 

“United was the first to make the move, raising $6.8 billion in June, but Spirit and Delta quickly followed suit with $850 million and $9 billion, respectively. And in March of 2021, American Airlines set a new record for the largest ever financing transaction in aviation history with a total of $10 billion backed by the intellectual property and cash flows associated with the AAdvantage program.” – Harvard Business Review 

Loyalty programs earn billions annually by selling points, and during periods when people are traveling less, they can sell points to partners at a discount to encourage sales and generate immediate revenue without requiring immediate travel. Hilton did this in early 2020, selling $1 billion in Hilton Honors points to American Express. 

They can offer similar mileage sales directly to consumers, often with bonus incentives, like “get 80% more when you buy at least 50,000 miles.” During downturns, these sales become more frequent and more aggressively promoted. They act as a tool to generate immediate cash flow and a lever to boost customer engagement and retention, especially when paired with redemption deals or status accelerators. And they are a way to fill seats or rooms with travelers who may spend on ancillaries like checked luggage, resort fees, or onsite dining.

Other things that these programs may do to increase revenue are offering bonus miles and points for bookings or transfers (e.g. transfer points from American Express to British Airways and get a 30% bonus), lowering redemption thresholds (award sales), offering elite status extensions or fast-track offers for status, and running promotions that reward booking behavior, not just spend (e.g., “Stay 2 nights, get 1 free”). 

Lower demand for travel also means that consumers face less competition for redemptions, and revenue management teams often release more inventory for loyalty program members, whether those are mileage seats or hotel awards. 

All of this means that points and miles redemptions become more accessible and often more lucrative for consumers.

How to leverage your points and miles for added wealth in an uncertain economy

While there’s a lot of downside to a volatile economy, for those who are more secure in their finances and are able to leverage their points, there can be some upside in the form of better award availability, less competition for award seats and hotel nights, and more opportunities for low-cost, high-value rewards. How’s how to take advantage of them. 

Track prices and leverage transfer bonuses so you can snag the best fares

Whether you have a specific redemption in mind or are more of an opportunist looking to snag the best fare at any time, knowing the typical cost of a fare is the first step. Once you know the baseline, you can spot the goldmines. 

You can use point.me tools like Explore to see recent deals other point.me members have found and see what you can expect to spend on a route, or use our Points Value Calculator to see if a fare you found is a good value. 

When you search on point.me, you can set up fare alerts to get notified when the fares on your chosen routes drop, and we’ll highlight when transfer bonuses mean spending fewer points. 

Buy points and miles strategically during sales 

We don’t typically recommend buying points speculatively, but if you have a redemption in mind, they can be a great way to boost your points balance quickly and easily, especially for topping off your balance for a high-value reward or during exceptional sales like those often run during economic downturns. 

For example, when an airline is offering a bonus of 100% or more — sometimes even up to 160% — on the miles you purchase, it’s a great time to buy miles if you have a plan to use them. 

Use points to offset the highest costs or reduce your out-of-pocket expenses

Three-fourths (75%) of point.me members surveyed said they collect points to travel in more comfort or luxury than they would normally, with two-thirds (66%) of point.me members saying that they get at least $2,500 worth of value from their points each year. More than a third (39%) said they reinvest some of that savings on other aspects of their trip like hotels or experiences. 

These savvy travelers know: points are hidden wealth, and using them smartly can stretch your travel budget a lot further. 

Be prepared for devaluations 

When issuers are selling points at a discount and travel demand is reduced, it’s easier to leverage your points for a great redemption. But there’s a downside as well. Issuers don’t like to have too many points out in circulation, so when a lot of points are earned (or sold) but not redeemed due to lower demand, they tend to take corrective action in the form of a devaluation. Essentially, they increase the number of points needed for each flight, making the points they’ve issued worth a bit less. 

The best way to avoid watching your points devalue is to use them. Points are currency, but unlike dollars, there’s no value found in saving them up. They’re only as valuable as the trips you can book with them and the money they save you, so make the most of them by using them regularly. 

Most of us don’t want to watch our economy ride a twisting roller coaster from week to week, waiting to see if we’ll feel exhilarated or nauseous after each new maneuver. But if there’s one tool in our toolkit to help make the ride feel a little smoother, it’s points and miles. 

In our surveys, 25% of Americans and 96% of point.me members said they had at least 25,000 points (and over 85% of point.me members reported having over 100,000). Those points are wealth — wealth that could be leveraged for travel expenses that would otherwise be cut during down times, and which, for some people, could mean the difference between taking their next trip or staying home.